Tom DiNapoli - Low-balling New York Casinos
New York State Comptroller, Thomas DiNapoli |
By all accounts Tom DiNapoli, New York State's
Comptroller, is a level headed guy who has yet to be touched by any of the all
too frequent scandals that have plagued New York politicos in the past few
years. A loner with few visible governmental buddies, he has successfully waged
campaigns against shoddy bookkeeping and lousy financial policies in
institutions throughout the state. So why shouldn't we sit up and listen when
he makes predictions about the eventual economic benefits of the four new
casinos proposed for New York? Mostly because we don't want to hear anything
bad about something we have yearned for far too long.
Here's what Tom had to say the other day about the impact
of casinos on New York, a statement that was widely quoted in the New York
Times and every other newspaper still around. "There will be winners and
losers. The jury is still out as to what the long-term impact is and whether
that might well be as positive as proponents have argued.”
Although the original estimates rolled out before the
casino legislation was put to a vote had revenues coming in at many hundreds of
millions of dollars in addition to the $3.2 billion already there mostly from
lotteries and racinos, DiNapoli suggests that as little as $200 million
annually in new money will be realized at first. His rationale, worthy of
consideration, is that much of the casino traffic generated by the four new
casinos will come from in-state residents as opposed to luring outsiders in from
neighboring states. “In
terms of the state’s economy, such activity primarily represents
substitution of gambling losses for other consumer purchases (entertainment or
retail sales, for example),” he says, “rather than net new
business.”
This is not the first time that Tom's proclamations
differ from those of the Governor, Andrew Cuomo, and the legislative leaders.
It will not be the last time either.
The preliminary results of New Jersey's foray into online
gambling this year and last should encourage all doubters to lean toward
agreeing with Mr. DiNapoli. Initial projections in the many millions of dollars
fell far short of even the most modest estimates and in hindsight most of the
hype served to get the laws on the books and nothing else. New Jersey will now
plod along with more reasonable expectations and see what happens.
In the long run casinos in New York will bring more jobs
and will stimulate the economy - just not as much as expected. The state will
generate more tax revenue and funnel it into the schools and other places it is
needed - just not as much as expected. The message is that casinos can be part
of the solution to a big problem this state and every state faces regarding
revenue - it just can't be the only solution.
Tom DiNapoli is usually right and he has few, if any,
allegiances to satisfy or cronies to appease. I'd listen to what he has to say.
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